IVCA Provides Updates for State Legislative Issues – 11/6/2024
Illinois Venture Capital Association Illinois Legislative Report
David Stricklin / Stricklin & Associates
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
BUDGET FORECAST FOR RED INK
GOV BUDGET OFFICE WARNS $3B DEFICIT
The first extensive public look at next year’s state finances contains a warning to lawmakers from the governor’s office: “The ability to fund new programs will be severely limited” next fiscal year. That comes from the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, which projected a potential budget shortfall of $3.2 billion for fiscal year 2026, which doesn’t begin until July 1. The Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report published each November is often seen as a table-setter for the budgeting negotiations that will ramp up in earnest when lawmakers return to the Capitol for the legislative year that begins each January. GOMB projects that revenues will remain flat at roughly $53.4 billion for the upcoming year, while spending will grow by $3.2 billion. (Capitol News Illinois 11-4-24)
TL/DR: ILLINOIS POLS EYE 26
With Donald J. Trump elected the 47th president of the United States, Democrats are already looking for their candidate in 2028 and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is among those interested. Does the governor run for re-election to a third term in 2026 while he also positions himself as a candidate for president, or does he decide not to run and start taking his case directly, slowly but surely, to Democratic voters? Most Illinois political observers expect he would do both; run again, hoping to win and to take his record in Illinois out to the rest of the country.
Republicans will soon control the United States Senate — will U.S. Senator Dick Durbin run again in 2026? A host of Illinois elected officials are waiting for the opportunity to succeed him, and looking to see if U.S. Reps. Schneider, Schakowsky and Foster want to continue to toil as minority members of the U.S. House. Any movement at the top creates opportunity for current office holders to move up, which has a domino effect down the line. Had Vice President Harris been elected president there would have been much less upward mobility available for Illinois elected officials. Now it seems there’s plenty of change to expect.
BLUE WAVE RECEDES
Illinois Democrats in the House of Representatives at one point thought they might pick up a handful of seats in the suburbs with the tailwinds of a strong turnout at the top of the ticket driving turnout. As of this morning, two of the seats which Democrats thought they could flip were being held by Republican incumbents, albeit with very, very narrow margins, which could change as vote tallies are made final. Across the board, however, Democratic incumbents with nearly anonymous challengers chalked up more narrow margins than might have been expected a few weeks or days ago. The national trend would appear to be evident in these results, though Illinois is “blue” to the extent it did not result in any Democratic incumbents losing their seats.
Democrats poised to keep supermajorities intact in Illinois legislature. Tribune…
– Several races remained undecided as ballots continued to be counted late Tuesday.
– Republican Rep. Amy Grant, who is vying for a fourth term, was in a 50-50 dead heat with Democrat Jackie Williamson of Wheaton with about 99% of the estimated vote total counted, according to unofficial results from The Associated Press.
– Republican Rep. Martin McLaughlin held a slight edge over Democratic challenger Maria Peterson, a former labor attorney from North Barrington, with 91% of the estimated vote total reporting.
ELECTION NEWS AND NOTES
* Crain’s | ‘Millionaire tax’ advisory ballot measure appears headed for a win: With ballots still being counted late Tuesday evening, Illinois voters appeared to be overwhelmingly backing an advisory question that could give state lawmakers a tool to push for higher taxes on wealthy residents — a tax that supporters argued would clear the way for property tax relief. With 71% of votes counted as of 11 p.m., the referendum was leading 60.5% to 39.5%, based on 4.2 million total votes cast. Supporters are calling the result a mandate to enact legislation.
* WTTW | O’Neill Burke Declared Winner in Race to Replace Kim Foxx as Cook County’s Top Prosecutor: The AP declared Burke the winner just before 9 p.m. in one of the most closely watched races on Election Day in Chicago. Burke, a former circuit and appellate level judge who also served as both an assistant state’s attorney and defense attorney, received 65% of votes to defeat Republican former alderperson Bob Fioretti (31%) and Libertarian Andrew Charles Kopinski (4%) with 59% of votes counted, according to unofficial results.